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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

$183 Billion of U.S. Non-Bank Commercial Debt Matures in 2016, a 51% Spike Over 2015

February 5th, 2016

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According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2015 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes, eleven percent or $183.3 billion of $1.7 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages held by non-bank lenders and investors will mature in 2016. This represents a 51 percent increase from the $121.0 billion that matured in 2015. Maturities will grow to $208 billion in 2017.

“More commercial and multifamily mortgages are maturing in 2016 and 2017 than have the last few years, but early refinancings and pay-downs are chipping away at those totals. The bottom line is that the ‘wall of maturities’ that has been the focus of concern the last many years is receding,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “Last year’s survey tracked $225 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages that were set to mature in 2016. This year’s survey found that 2016 maturities had dropped by 18 percent, to $183 billion as loans prepaid and paid-down. That’s roughly the same amount that matured in the year 2010.”

The loan maturities vary significantly by investor group. Just $11.4 billion (2 percent) of the outstanding balance of multifamily and health care mortgages held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and Ginnie Mae will mature in 2016. Life insurance companies will see $26.6 billion (7 percent) of their outstanding mortgage balances mature in 2016. Among loans held in CMBS, $114.6 billion (19 percent) will come due in 2016. Among commercial mortgages held by credit companies and other investors, $30.7 billion (18 percent) will mature in 2016.

The dollar figures reported are the unpaid principle balances as of December 31, 2015. Because most loans pay down principle, the balances at the time of maturity will generally be lower than those reported here. This survey covers $1.69 trillion of commercial and multifamily mortgages held or insured by life companies, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, CMBS trusts and other non-bank lenders and investors. Banks and thrifts hold an additional $1.0 trillion in mortgages backed by income producing properties which are not covered by this survey.

Courtesy of Michael Gerry
Photo Credits: World Property Journal